Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:59:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2189…0e53 sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$128 (-36%) realized −$129 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$128
14 days−$129
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$126
other 1% $0
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -19.2% -26.9% 50% 38% -44.7%
≤30d 20 -12.2% -20.5% 50% 45% -43.2%
≤90d 20 -12.2% -20.5% 50% 45% -43.2%
all 20 -12.2% -20.5% 50% 45% -43.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 45% -43.2%
10% -28.2% 45% -48.6%
15% -35.1% 35% -53.6%
20% -41.5% 25% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$20 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage13d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) Wang 51¢ 66¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+30%)
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Xinyu Wang 28¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 11 $43 +$36 +84%
Mboko vs. Pliskova: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 10 $12 $0 +3%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $50 +$18 +36%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $30 +$7 +24%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $2 +$1 +29%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $2 +$2 +76%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $1 +$1 +128%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $1 −$1 -76%
Birmingham: Ugo Blanchet vs Felix Gill Jun 03 $1 +$1 +78%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $2 −$1 -40%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $1 $0 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 28¢ $2 1h
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) BUY Wang 51¢ $3 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? SELL No 79¢ $5 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 78¢ $5 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 3h
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 54¢ $81 5d
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) SELL Knicks 100¢ $78 5d
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) BUY Knicks 58¢ $12 5d
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $30 5d
Mboko vs. Pliskova: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 48¢ $12 5d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme BUY Jeline Vandromme 42¢ $10 5d
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu BUY Yibing Wu 81¢ $101 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 80¢ $30 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 73¢ $50 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 11d
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 77¢ $2 11d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 48¢ $1 11d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $3 11d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 56¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $4 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $2 12d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) SELL Knicks 100¢ $2 12d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 43¢ $1 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 13¢ $0 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 51¢ $1 12d
Birmingham: Ugo Blanchet vs Felix Gill SELL Felix Gill 100¢ $2 12d
Birmingham: Ugo Blanchet vs Felix Gill BUY Felix Gill 55¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.97 · official $10.97 (match) · 43 history records