Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:14:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2187…555e other 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$312 (-0%) realized −$311 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%10W / 81L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,427per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$17
14 days−$98
30 days−$302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$66
politics 41% −$70
sports 4% −$204
economics 2% −$2
culture 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 44 -8.6% -17.3% 7% 2% -9.9%
≤90d 91 -3.3% -12.5% 11% 7% -9.8%
all 91 -3.3% -12.5% 11% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 7% -9.8%
10% -20.8% 7% -18.4%
15% -28.5% 5% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,713) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$6 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$410
Realized−$311
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses10 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage84d
Avg bet$1,427
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $411 $410 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,474 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $4,101 −$4 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,310 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,382 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,301 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,238 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4,077 −$5 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,832 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,110 −$5 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $3,189 −$4 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,649 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,365 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,649 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $1,677 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,586 −$2 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $4,543 −$6 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $470 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 02 $707 +$1 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,210 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $809 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $2,892 −$4 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 26 $1,194 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,369 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,031 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,280 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,091 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $45 +$12 +27%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,336 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,194 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,189 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1,200 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,253 −$2 -0%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 21 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 20 $39 +$36 +93%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,311 −$2 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 19 $36 +$28 +76%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $1,329 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $275 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $276 3h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,411 2d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,413 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,308 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,310 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,380 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,382 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,126 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,127 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,033 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,034 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,298 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,301 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,237 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,238 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $411 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,230 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,231 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,830 9d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,832 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,351 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,354 10d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,421 10d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,422 10d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,530 11d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,533 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,647 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,649 11d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,363 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $410.31 · official $410.31 (match) · 286 history records