Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2184…2286 sports 95 markets active 14h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+9%) realized +$21 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%42W / 44L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$19
14 days+$29
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$22
crypto 13% −$2
politics 5% −$5
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +5.4% -4.6% 33% 33% +13.4%
≤30d 86 -1.0% -10.4% 49% 44% +1.2%
≤90d 86 -1.0% -10.4% 49% 44% +1.2%
all 86 -1.0% -10.4% 49% 44% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 44% +1.2%
10% -19.0% 38% -8.5%
15% -26.8% 33% -17.4%
20% -34.0% 30% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses42 / 44
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)86 / 95
History coverage15d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 60¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? Yes 41¢ 35¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Haiti elections delayed again? No 54¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-82%)
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 34¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $1 +$8 +786%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1 +$1 +109%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $1 +$1 +105%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $2 $0 -22%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $20 −$1 -6%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 +$25 +83%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $1 +$1 +97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +124%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1 +$1 +109%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $2 $0 -7%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $2 −$1 -49%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $2 $0 +22%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 $0 +46%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $1 +$1 +57%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1 $0 +32%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $1 +$1 +76%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $1 +$1 +124%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $1 +$1 +90%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $1 +$1 +65%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $1 +$1 +97%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1 +$1 +105%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $1 +$1 +146%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 04 $2 +$2 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 04 $2 +$2 +86%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $1 +$2 +188%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 60¢ $1 14h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $1 17h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 49¢ $1 24h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 11¢ $1 27h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 35¢ $1 28h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 47¢ $1 35h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 45¢ $1 35h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $1 37h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $1 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 56¢ $1 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 36¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 13¢ $1 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 28¢ $1 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $1 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $1 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 55¢ $1 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $19 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $20 6d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 52¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 49¢ $1 6d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox 41¢ $1 6d
Haiti elections delayed again? BUY No 54¢ $1 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 48¢ $1 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $30 7d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $1 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No $1 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 47¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 44¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN 49¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.59 · official $3.59 (match) · 192 history records