Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
21 0x2184…00df world 226 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$449 (+9%) realized +$583 · open −$134
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate69%136W / 61L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$762now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$29
14 days+$183
30 days+$302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$307
tech 22% −$126
crypto 19% +$205
other 6% +$23
politics 5% +$11
finance 1% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +1.6% -8.1% 69% 54% +6.1%
≤30d 56 +37.5% +24.4% 59% 39% +9.5%
≤90d 194 +38.1% +25.0% 69% 41% +3.4%
all 197 +40.8% +27.4% 69% 41% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.4% 41% +3.5%
10% +15.2% 28% -6.4%
15% +4.0% 20% -15.5%
20% -6.2% 13% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$762
Realized+$583
Unrealized−$134
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses136 / 61
Open positions29
Markets (closed)197 / 226
History coverage96d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $474 $294 −$180 (-38%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $94 $96 +$3 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 21¢ 97¢ $12 $55 +$43 (+359%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 34¢ 40¢ $35 $41 +$6 (+16%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 72¢ 96¢ $25 $34 +$8 (+32%)
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? No 95¢ 99¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 99¢ $12 $28 +$16 (+130%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+3%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 94¢ $12 $16 +$3 (+28%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 14¢ 10¢ $18 $14 −$5 (-25%)
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 73¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+14%)
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? Yes 39¢ 70¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+79%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Yes 46¢ 28¢ $17 $11 −$7 (-39%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 88¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+25%)
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 91¢ 95¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 25¢ 39¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+56%)
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 6¢ $32 $6 −$26 (-82%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 68¢ 48¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $11 +$1 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $12 +$2 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $15 +$22 +147%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $26 +$8 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +67%
Will SpaceX list on the NYSE? Jun 12 $17 +$2 +12%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $19 +$8 +44%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $23 $0 +2%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $12 −$2 -13%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +5%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $6 $0 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 04 $19 −$19 -97%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 04 $26 −$1 -4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $372 −$7 -2%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 03 $5 −$4 -69%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 03 $30 +$10 +32%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $26 +$1 +5%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $44 −$5 -10%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $25 +$62 +253%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $47 +$114 +244%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 02 $14 +$1 +9%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 02 $2 +$38 +1831%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $374 +$101 +27%
Will SpaceX have 14 or more launches in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6 +$2 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9 +$3 +32%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 Jun 01 $7 $0 -3%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $20 +$2 +8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $6 +$2 +41%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 29 $14 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $19 +$4 +19%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M May 27 $1 −$1 -79%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 26 $6 $0 +7%
Another confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? May 26 $2 +$4 +245%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? May 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $27 +$6 +20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? May 21 $6 −$6 -96%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 21 $72 +$12 +17%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $12 +$7 +57%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? May 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut May 20 $31 −$10 -31%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 20 $16 +$1 +4%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $20 −$12 -60%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 20 $8 +$1 +6%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 20 $5 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $52 2h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 31¢ $12 2h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 14h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $761.76 · official $761.76 (match) · 2092 history records