Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:51:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2184…d271 weather 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$110 (-9%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$66
14 days−$71
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 33% −$35
politics 30% −$38
other 15% −$10
world 10% −$5
culture 7% −$30
tech 6% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -9.2% -17.9% 0% 0% -20.1%
≤30d 31 -9.5% -18.1% 0% 0% -19.3%
≤90d 37 -9.6% -18.2% 3% 0% -19.2%
all 37 -9.6% -18.2% 3% 0% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -19.2%
10% -26.0% 0% -26.9%
15% -33.1% 0% -34.0%
20% -39.7% 0% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage40d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 25? Jun 23 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 25? Jun 23 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 25? Jun 23 $7 $0 -2%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Jun 23 $43 −$1 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? Jun 22 $45 −$9 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 Jun 22 $45 −$6 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? Jun 21 $9 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 22? Jun 21 $42 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 20 $41 −$14 -33%
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? Jun 20 $49 −$22 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 21? Jun 19 $47 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $33 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 19? Jun 18 $41 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 19? Jun 18 $22 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 17 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 17 $43 −$2 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 13 $36 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 11 $16 −$1 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 11 $15 $0 -3%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 10 $32 −$2 -7%
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 06 $23 −$1 -6%
Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch Jun 05 $30 −$2 -8%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 04 $30 −$1 -4%
City Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 03 $6 −$1 -14%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? May 30 $61 −$7 -11%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 May 29 $34 −$7 -22%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? May 27 $17 −$2 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 27 $33 $0 -2%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 25 $36 −$14 -40%
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 24 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 24 $43 $0 +1%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 23 $30 −$4 -14%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 21 $25 −$2 -8%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Her May 14 $31 −$8 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 25? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 29m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 32m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 25? SELL No 73¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 25? SELL No 76¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 25? BUY No 74¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 25? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 25? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 2h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $42 8h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 82¢ $43 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? SELL No 47¢ $35 24h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 58¢ $45 25h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 31h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 31h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 SELL No 56¢ $39 38h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 BUY No 63¢ $45 39h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? SELL No 65¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 67¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 22? SELL No 68¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 69¢ $42 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL No 44¢ $23 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL No 44¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL No 44¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 66¢ $41 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? SELL No 0¢ $0 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? SELL No 34¢ $20 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? SELL No 36¢ $7 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? BUY No 37¢ $49 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 73¢ $45 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 76¢ $47 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? SELL Yes 20¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records