Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:47:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
21 0x2182…73e1 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$299 (+33%) realized +$327 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$317
14 days+$317
30 days+$317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$309
other 36% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +51.3% +36.9% 68% 68% +41.0%
≤30d 19 +51.3% +36.9% 68% 68% +41.0%
≤90d 19 +51.3% +36.9% 68% 68% +41.0%
all 19 +51.3% +36.9% 68% 68% +41.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.9% 68% +41.0%
10% +23.8% 68% +27.5%
15% +11.8% 68% +15.2%
20% +0.9% 68% +3.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late +53% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$22 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.39 per $1 lost it wins $3.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized+$327
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)19 / 24
History coverage24d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $200 $172 −$28 (-14%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $31 +$43 +140%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$33 +109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$28 +140%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$33 +109%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $41 +$43 +105%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $31 +$38 +124%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$31 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$29 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$25 +83%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$23 +114%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$31 +101%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 −$15 -48%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $41 +$59 +146%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $52 −$28 -54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $41 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $31 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $64 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $20 32h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $31 32h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 32h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 32h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 32h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $41 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $61 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $31 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $60 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $31 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $30 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 29¢ $16 4d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL Yes 3¢ $24 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $30 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $41 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 9d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 7¢ $52 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.47 · official $302.47 (match) · 49 history records