Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2180…5674 sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$95 (+11%) realized +$89 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%10W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$179
7 days−$313
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$138
crypto 33% −$121
other 7% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -66.4% -69.6% 14% 14% -62.9%
≤30d 37 +30.1% +17.7% 27% 27% -11.7%
≤90d 37 +30.1% +17.7% 27% 27% -11.7%
all 37 +30.1% +17.7% 27% 27% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.7% 27% -11.7%
10% +6.4% 27% -20.2%
15% -3.8% 27% -27.9%
20% -13.3% 24% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +128% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$22 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage12d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 37¢ $21 $27 +$6 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $54 +$29 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $65 −$60 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$31 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $33 −$30 -92%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -94%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 +$53 +249%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 +$96 +452%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$24 +225%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$31 +292%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$33 +309%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$156 +1460%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 +$10 +49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $22 −$11 -49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 +$122 +570%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $22 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $30 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $33 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $33 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 30h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 30h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 31h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 31h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $16 31h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 31h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $21 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 7d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 7d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 7d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 8d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 8d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 8d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 9d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.91 · official $26.91 (match) · 64 history records