Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:30:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

21 0x217f…3bf0 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$145 (+26%) realized +$195 · open −$50

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%6W / 3L

Drawdown11%max

Avg bet$50per market

Trades / day8.3pace

Kalshi-fit9%portable

Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-4.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+5.3%	-4.7%	67%	67%	+17.1%
≤30d	9	+5.3%	-4.7%	67%	67%	+17.1%
≤90d	9	+5.3%	-4.7%	67%	67%	+17.1%
all	9	+5.3%	-4.7%	67%	67%	+17.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.7%	67%	+17.1%
10%	-13.8%	44%	+5.9%
15%	-22.2%	44%	-4.3%
20%	-29.8%	22%	-13.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$26 vs −$6 · ×4.37 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×8.75 per $1 lost it wins $8.75

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$35

Realized+$195

Unrealized−$50

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses6 / 3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)9 / 11

History coverage2d

Avg bet$50

Trades / day8.3

Drawdown11%

Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$29	$29	−$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	69¢	8¢	$56	$6	−$50 (-89%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 21	$30	−$1	-3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$23	+$3	+11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$57	+$27	+47%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$165	+$80	+49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$31	+$21	+69%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$129	+$15	+11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$16	+$10	+63%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$30	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	64¢	$30	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$26	3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$8	16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$30	16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$30	16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$15	16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$57	23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	84¢	$15	23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$52	27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$113	35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$31	39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$103	46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$26	46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$26	46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	16¢	$2	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$16	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.95 · official $34.96 (match) · 24 history records