Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x217f…26fa sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$186 (+7%) realized +$200 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$160
7 days+$298
14 days+$298
30 days+$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$76
sports 29% +$311
tech 24% −$84
world 11% +$41
finance 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +39.0% +25.8% 62% 54% +3.5%
≤30d 13 +39.0% +25.8% 62% 54% +3.5%
≤90d 13 +39.0% +25.8% 62% 54% +3.5%
all 20 +9.2% -1.2% 55% 45% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 45% -3.4%
10% -10.6% 35% -12.6%
15% -19.3% 35% -21.1%
20% -27.2% 35% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$73 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized+$200
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage97d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+5%)
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 22¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $500 +$15 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 +$148 +73%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 +$74 +146%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$63 +307%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $201 +$44 +22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $305 −$13 -4%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $132 +$221 +167%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 16 $300 +$41 +14%
Will Max Verstappen achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the Mar 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $305 on March 11? Mar 12 $50 +$4 +8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Mar 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5) Mar 11 $50 +$28 +56%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Mar 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13? Mar 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $91 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $500 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $101 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 19h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 42h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 34¢ $103 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 60¢ $291 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 61¢ $305 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 3d
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 24¢ $20 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 5d
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $60 95d
Will Max Verstappen achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the BUY Yes 17¢ $16 95d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $305 on March 11? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 96d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? BUY No 33¢ $50 96d
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5) BUY Vici Gaming 64¢ $50 96d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 96d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $25 97d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY No 88¢ $300 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.73 · official $155.73 (match) · 37 history records