Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:06:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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21 0x217a…5dfa crypto 1320 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$37,373 (-48%) realized −$37,398 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate60%787W / 532L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Fees−$410est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$1,330
crypto 23% −$1,864
other 4% −$1,876
world 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -11.0% -19.4% 48% 45% -82.2%
≤30d 313 -10.8% -19.3% 54% 46% -21.2%
≤90d 1319 -3.4% -12.6% 60% 49% -15.5%
all 1319 -3.4% -12.6% 60% 49% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 49% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 38% -23.6%
15% -28.6% 30% -30.9%
20% -35.6% 24% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$35 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$37,398
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses787 / 532
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$410
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1319 / 1320
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$59
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1319 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $125 $150 +$25 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $38 +$33 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,500 −$1,273 -85%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $480 −$478 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1 +$1 +50%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $3 −$2 -63%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $3 +$1 +24%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $2 +$1 +48%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $2 +$1 +40%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $1 $0 +41%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $1 $0 -5%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $5 −$4 -75%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $15 −$10 -68%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $12 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -96%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 05 $25 −$22 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 05 $14 +$1 +5%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $119 −$95 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 05 $7 +$15 +198%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 19m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $38 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $18 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $14 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.80 · official $149.80 (match) · 3500 history records