Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2175…7538 other 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$51 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%15W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$29
sports 27% +$37
crypto 27% −$52
world 5% −$20
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -6.6% -15.5% 27% 27% -17.9%
≤30d 56 -6.6% -15.5% 27% 27% -17.9%
≤90d 56 -6.6% -15.5% 27% 27% -17.9%
all 56 -6.6% -15.5% 27% 27% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 27% -17.9%
10% -23.6% 27% -25.8%
15% -30.9% 21% -33.0%
20% -37.7% 18% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$9 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses15 / 41
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)56 / 60
History coverage5d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals Yes 11¢ 50¢ $10 $47 +$37 (+372%)
Austria leading at halftime? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ goals Yes 34¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +48%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $9 +$6 +71%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $7 +$10 +139%
Ali Al Hamadi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 +$11 +35%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 −$20 -56%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 +$14 +165%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Ajdin Hrustic: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $40 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $13 +$23 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $40 +$64 +162%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$19 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$4 +13%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$113 +2205%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$9 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $5 8m
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 9m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $30 15m
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 87¢ $16 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $9 3h
Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $7 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $17 3h
Ali Al Hamadi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 31¢ $5 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $7 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $28 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $16 6h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 7h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $30 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $15 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $15 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 55¢ $22 24h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 9¢ $10 2d
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Yue Yuan 15¢ $10 2d
Ajdin Hrustic: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $6 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 43¢ $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.31 · official $62.31 (match) · 92 history records