Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x216e…8600 crypto 1752 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,455 (+3%) realized +$4,455 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate97%1713W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day64.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 389 -4.9% -14.0% 93% 3% -15.2%
≤30d 1765 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 2% -10.3%
≤90d 1765 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 2% -10.3%
all 1765 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 2% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 1% -18.9%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$97 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,455
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1713 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1765 / 1752
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$91
Trades / day64.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1765 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $24 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $45 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $42 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records