Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x216e…4e32 weather 280 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$332 (+6%) realized +$355 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate58%159W / 113L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$233
7 days+$321
14 days+$324
30 days+$324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$274
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +20.7% +9.2% 45% 38% +4.2%
≤30d 50 +19.8% +8.4% 46% 38% +4.0%
≤90d 270 -0.3% -9.8% 58% 34% -3.9%
all 272 -0.2% -9.7% 58% 34% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 34% -3.9%
10% -18.4% 24% -13.1%
15% -26.3% 16% -21.5%
20% -33.5% 13% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$355
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses159 / 113
Open positions8
Markets (closed)272 / 280
History coverage111d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? No 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $71 +$27 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $156 +$27 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$7 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$13 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$220 +2100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $393 +$20 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $73 −$49 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 −$45 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $42 −$40 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $52 +$65 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $355 +$122 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -86%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$7 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$17 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $44 +$58 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $62 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$26 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $112 −$105 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $101 +$34 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$12 +344%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$5 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $81 +$46 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $82 +$14 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $71 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $37 29h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $127 30h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $29 31h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $30 31h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $23 33h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 42¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 35h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 35h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 36h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 37h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 37h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 37h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 46h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? SELL No 6¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.67 · official $8.67 (match) · 636 history records