Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:17:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
21 0x2167…5ded crypto 256 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$102 (-4%) realized −$133 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%111W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$448now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$79
14 days+$84
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$195
other 14% −$11
world 9% +$41
sports 4% +$29
politics 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +26.9% +14.9% 100% 50% +12.9%
≤30d 12 +1.4% -8.3% 58% 42% +10.8%
≤90d 244 -5.3% -14.3% 45% 43% -14.5%
all 248 -6.8% -15.7% 45% 42% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 42% -15.9%
10% -23.7% 40% -23.9%
15% -31.1% 38% -31.3%
20% -37.9% 37% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$448
Realized−$133
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses111 / 137
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)248 / 256
History coverage90d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 93¢ 93¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 96¢ 95¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31? No 100¢ 98¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 51¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $118 +$41 +35%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 +$2 +134%
Will Venezuela vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 16 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 16 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 16 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 12 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 12 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 12 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 12 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 18 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 18 $18 +$11 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 18 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 18 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 18 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 18 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 17 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 17 $37 −$25 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 17 $10 +$14 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 17 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 17 $12 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 17 $5 +$6 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 17 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 17 $8 +$11 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 17 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 17 $5 +$6 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 15 $19 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 15 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 15 $17 −$17 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $47 17m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $50 59m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $0 59m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 99¢ $50 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $55 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $50 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $57 2h
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $50 2h
New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31? BUY No 100¢ $50 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 14h
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $50 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $18 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $50 17h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $50 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $50 18h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $51 19h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $51 22h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $50 22h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $50 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 42¢ $1 10d
Will Venezuela vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 10d
Will Venezuela vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $7 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $3 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $447.53 · official $447.53 (match) · 548 history records