Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2166…f2fd world 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-3%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate21%10W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$3
politics 22% −$21
other 13% $0
sports 6% +$2
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.6% -10.9% 17% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 15 -1.9% -11.3% 20% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 15 -1.9% -11.3% 20% 0% -10.4%
all 47 -4.1% -13.2% 21% 2% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 2% -12.1%
10% -21.5% 2% -20.6%
15% -29.1% 0% -28.2%
20% -36.1% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses10 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage262d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $50 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $3 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $44 −$1 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $62 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $2 $0 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $6 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $6 −$1 -24%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $51 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Dec 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $4 +$2 +35%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $25 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Oct 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $6 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 08 $25 $0 +2%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $2 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 01 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 30 $27 $0 -1%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $49 15m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $49 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $49 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $50 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $50 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $43 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $44 35h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $5 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $3 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $38 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $26 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $19 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $31 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $31 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records