Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:04:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x2165…1d65 crypto 399 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$179 (+3%) realized +$180 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%186W / 210L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$160
14 days+$208
30 days+$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$20
sports 6% +$53
other 1% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +12.4% +1.7% 48% 47% +16.7%
≤30d 93 +21.6% +10.0% 55% 54% +16.4%
≤90d 125 +4.0% -5.9% 47% 46% -7.5%
all 396 +2.3% -7.4% 47% 45% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 45% -7.9%
10% -16.3% 42% -16.7%
15% -24.4% 38% -24.8%
20% -31.8% 32% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$180
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses186 / 210
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)396 / 399
History coverage112d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 396 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET Jun 26 $69 +$25 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$26 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$7 +67%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 AND Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 −$4 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$30 +287%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$43 +359%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$4 -75%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 25 $15 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$4 +16%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 +$5 +101%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 +$4 +83%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 +$3 +60%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $5 +$2 +36%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 +$3 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $19 +$11 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$6 -74%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$2 -43%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 +$40 +786%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$17 +162%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 +$5 +105%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 +$2 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7PM ET Jun 22 $23 −$4 -17%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 +$8 +158%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 +$2 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$24 +78%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$13 +250%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 +$7 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$21 +101%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 +$2 +44%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$7 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $93 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $16 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $16 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $16 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 10h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 10h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 13h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 AND Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL 4¢ $1 14h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 16h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 AND Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY 21¢ $5 16h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $41 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $55 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.08 · official $12.08 (match) · 1154 history records