Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:44:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x2165…8075 crypto 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 548d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL +$2,320 (+3%) realized +$2,282 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate70%126W / 54L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$457per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$93
14 days+$40
30 days+$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$2,264
sports 1% +$1
economics 1% +$16
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.0% -10.4% 67% 0% -12.4%
≤30d 23 +4.7% -5.3% 78% 13% -7.3%
≤90d 45 +1.0% -8.6% 78% 7% -7.4%
all 180 +2.8% -7.0% 70% 15% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 15% -7.0%
10% -15.9% 10% -15.9%
15% -24.0% 7% -24.1%
20% -31.4% 4% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$596) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$34 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized+$2,282
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses126 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)180 / 182
History coverage548d
Avg bet$457
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $142 $137 −$5 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 88¢ 92¢ $88 $92 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 15 $352 −$28 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $876 −$79 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 11 $179 +$6 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 11 $101 +$5 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $275 +$5 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 10 $199 −$10 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 09 $191 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $122 +$78 +64%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 03 $156 +$14 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $240 +$19 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,685 +$23 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $67 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 26 $70 −$3 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 26 $250 −$4 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 18-24? May 22 $302 +$21 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 21? May 22 $179 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $177 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 18 $784 +$103 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? May 18 $289 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17? May 17 $127 +$15 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 16 $187 +$8 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 11-17? May 15 $201 +$5 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17? May 14 $229 +$10 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 01 $650 −$19 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? May 01 $365 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $361 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 24? Apr 25 $114 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 20-26? Apr 25 $84 +$7 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 22 $896 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 19 $390 +$8 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Apr 17 $325 −$4 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 13-19? Apr 17 $209 +$7 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 14 $491 −$9 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 02 $779 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 27 $784 +$25 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 16-22? Mar 23 $199 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 20 $883 +$44 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $455 +$1 +0%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8? Mar 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $451 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 17 $2,088 +$153 +7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 16 $535 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 9-15? Mar 15 $534 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 09 $330 −$82 -25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8? Mar 07 $224 +$8 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 71¢ $78 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 71¢ $64 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 82¢ $324 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $81 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $7 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 83¢ $465 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 93¢ $45 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 93¢ $46 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 93¢ $225 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 93¢ $46 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 93¢ $46 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 93¢ $46 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 93¢ $46 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 93¢ $19 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $501 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $176 42h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $500 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $88 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 92¢ $18 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 95¢ $106 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 92¢ $5 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 92¢ $162 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 72¢ $200 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 72¢ $12 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 89¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $275 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 88¢ $88 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 63¢ $63 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $300 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.50 · official $228.50 (match) · 1020 history records