Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2165…f598 sports 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (916 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$76,504 (+52%) realized +$76,645 · open −$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate70%32W / 14L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$2,654per market
Trades / day916.1pace
Fees−$4,969est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$8,368now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1,039
other 4% −$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (916 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +3.0% -6.8% 70% 11% -8.8%
≤30d 46 +3.0% -6.8% 70% 11% -8.8%
≤90d 46 +3.0% -6.8% 70% 11% -8.8%
all 46 +3.0% -6.8% 70% 11% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover916.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 11% -8.8%
10% -15.7% 4% -17.5%
15% ← realistic here -23.9% 2% -25.5%
20% -31.3% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$3,400) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
34.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$60 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$8,368
Realized+$76,645
Unrealized−$141
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses32 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$4,969
Open positions19
Markets (closed)46 / 55
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$2,654
Trades / day916.1
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 40¢ 40¢ $4,000 $4,050 +$50 (+1%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Under 40¢ 38¢ $1,874 $1,804 −$70 (-4%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Under 5¢ 6¢ $1,000 $1,100 +$100 (+10%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Under 7¢ 6¢ $701 $654 −$48 (-7%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $300 $450 +$150 (+50%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Under 11¢ 12¢ $169 $177 +$8 (+5%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 20¢ 20¢ $82 $84 +$2 (+2%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Over 6¢ 6¢ $26 $29 +$2 (+8%)
Will Nongshim RedForce win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Royal Never Give Up win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-85%)
Will Ultra Prime win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-85%)
Will EDward Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $16 $2 −$13 (-85%)
Will a team from LCS (North America) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will a team from CBLOL (Brazil) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $290 $2 −$288 (-99%)
Will a team from LCP (Asia-Pacific) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+75%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will Oh My God win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+680%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $76 +$4 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2,759 −$59 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $571 +$23 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $267 −$39 -15%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,939 −$1 -0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5,200 −$600 -12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,700 +$12 +1%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $4,100 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $9,900 −$4 -0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3,312 +$16 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $976 +$1 +0%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $1,330 +$38 +3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $17 +$2 +12%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $77 +$11 +14%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,300 −$29 -1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $975 +$98 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $708 +$44 +6%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,900 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,534 +$97 +6%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,400 +$10 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$3 +75%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3,000 +$100 +3%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $14,547 +$182 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5,445 +$181 +3%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $921 +$61 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,050 $0 -0%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,266 +$41 +3%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $500 +$13 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $8,100 −$106 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $224 $0 -0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2,170 +$310 +14%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 13 $482 +$4 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 13 $55 $0 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 13 $53 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,100 −$1 -0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $289 +$2 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5,000 +$100 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $11,400 +$158 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $850 +$50 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,600 $0 -0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 13 $1,300 $0 -0%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $2,880 +$93 +3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $8,800 +$100 +1%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12,079 +$90 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $792 0m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Under 39¢ $1 0m
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $58 0m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $100 1m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $13 1m
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $1 1m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Under 39¢ $8 2m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $12 2m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $56 2m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $12 3m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $3 3m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $5 3m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $2 4m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $2 4m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $2 4m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $2 4m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $3 5m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $4 6m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 20¢ $0 6m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $5 6m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $7 7m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $0 8m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $4 8m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $67 9m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 20¢ $0 9m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 20¢ $1 10m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $1 10m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $2 11m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $600 11m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $1 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,367.84 · official $8,367.83 (match) · 3500 history records