Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2162…929e weather 287 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$86 (+2%) realized +$83 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate89%254W / 31L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day46.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days−$26
14 days+$63
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% +$73
crypto 15% −$11
other 1% +$4
world 0% +$1
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -3.0% -12.2% 83% 15% -10.6%
≤30d 285 +0.8% -8.8% 89% 13% -8.5%
≤90d 285 +0.8% -8.8% 89% 13% -8.5%
all 285 +0.8% -8.8% 89% 13% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 13% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 4% -17.2%
15% -25.5% 3% -25.2%
20% -32.8% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses254 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)285 / 287
History coverage21d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? No 95¢ 100¢ $49 $51 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? No 97¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $19 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $38 +$15 +39%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $49 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $81 −$8 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $10 12m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $10 12m
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $51 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.76 · official $71.76 (match) · 1080 history records