Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:08:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x215f…e7d3
world · 33 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage459d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 1 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $36 −$3 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $9 +$1 +17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $24 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $47 −$2 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $57 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $6 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +2%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 12 $14 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Apr 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 04 $6 $0 -3%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Left be part of the next German government? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 01 $14 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? Mar 24 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $14 $0 +3%
China wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in February? Mar 13 $12 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% −$3
other 31% +$1
finance 12% $0
politics 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $2 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $31 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $26 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $10 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 7¢ $10 46h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 6¢ $9 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $14 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $11 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $3 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $50 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $50 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $45 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $45 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $47 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $4 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $4 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $35 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $43 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $46 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $4 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $42 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 20% 10% -10.5%
≤30d 11 +0.6% -9.0% 27% 9% -10.4%
≤90d 11 +0.6% -9.0% 27% 9% -10.4%
all 32 +0.9% -8.7% 47% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 3% -9.7%
10% -17.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.18 · official $7.06 (match) · 81 history records