Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x215a…254c world 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (826 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$54,033 (+61%) realized +$55,115 · open −$1,082
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +282% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +194% what you keep after slip
Net edge+194%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%126W / 158L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$785per market
Trades / day825.7pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$23,564now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$20,261
other 14% −$2,225
politics 12% −$479
finance 2% +$110
economics 0% +$46
culture 0% +$246
tech 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (826 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+245.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 275 +282.3% +245.9% 43% 36% +25.5%
≤30d 275 +282.3% +245.9% 43% 36% +25.5%
≤90d 275 +282.3% +245.9% 43% 36% +25.5%
all 275 +282.3% +245.9% 43% 36% +25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover825.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +245.9% 36% +25.5%
10% ← realistic here +212.8% 33% +13.5%
15% +182.5% 31% +2.6%
20% +154.8% 28% -7.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +273% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late +574% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$49 · ×4.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.48 per $1 lost it wins $3.48
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$23,564
Realized+$55,115
Unrealized−$1,082
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses126 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions286
Markets (closed)284 / 112
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$785
Trades / day825.7
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 286 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 92¢ $3,335 $3,797 +$462 (+14%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 90¢ 97¢ $3,511 $3,768 +$257 (+7%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 73¢ 76¢ $2,547 $2,624 +$77 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 62¢ 91¢ $1,685 $2,488 +$803 (+48%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $1,724 $1,779 +$55 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $1,678 $1,157 −$521 (-31%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 58¢ 78¢ $797 $1,074 +$277 (+35%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? No 90¢ 99¢ $752 $825 +$73 (+10%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? No 85¢ 94¢ $681 $749 +$68 (+10%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $613 $635 +$22 (+4%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes 14¢ 16¢ $410 $483 +$73 (+18%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 27¢ 39¢ $311 $447 +$136 (+44%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $283 $325 +$42 (+15%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 7¢ 13¢ $142 $260 +$118 (+83%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 30¢ 48¢ $145 $234 +$89 (+61%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 34¢ 42¢ $190 $231 +$42 (+22%)
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes 85¢ 95¢ $190 $211 +$21 (+11%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 63¢ 48¢ $267 $207 −$61 (-23%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 5¢ 20¢ $42 $166 +$123 (+291%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 19¢ 26¢ $113 $148 +$36 (+32%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 93¢ 95¢ $126 $128 +$2 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 7¢ 18¢ $49 $124 +$75 (+152%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 67¢ 51¢ $156 $118 −$38 (-25%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? No 21¢ 29¢ $80 $110 +$30 (+38%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $112 $102 −$9 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 214 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 17 $0 +$6 +3806%
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary el Jun 17 $4 +$2 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary elec Jun 17 $1 −$12 -950%
Will Joo Ho-young win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 17 $4 +$113 +2971%
Will Nicholas Finan advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 17 $0 +$3 +984%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 T Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: April Jun 17 $0 −$13 -16550%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 17 $3 +$36 +1377%
Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 17 $0 +$2 +1289%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 17 $3 +$27 +1018%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 17 $3 −$2 -47%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 17 $0 +$26 +22295%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 17 $0 +$100 +36320%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Melania Trump attend Trump’s Xi summit? Jun 17 $2 −$7 -379%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$26 -611%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 10, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$87 -2942%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Jun 17 $0 −$25 -5907%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +397%
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +519%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +674%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 +$59 +54147%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Jun 17 $0 +$13 +3807%
Will Chung Jin-suk win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 17 $0 +$4 +927%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -57%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co Jun 17 $1 +$86 +7263%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 17 $72 +$555 +772%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 17 $2 −$150 -9510%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $245 −$452 -185%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Jun 17 $6 +$66 +1019%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$29 -2028%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $5 +$47 +874%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 17 $3 −$4 -104%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Jun 17 $7 −$6 -81%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Jun 17 $3 +$7 +258%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? Jun 17 $137 −$309 -226%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$14 -238%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL No 99¢ $72 3m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 39¢ $8 6m
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 41¢ $82 9m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 92¢ $184 11m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 20¢ $10 13m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 0¢ $0 15m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $90 19m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $69 19m
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 34¢ $258 19m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $3 20m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 37¢ $7 20m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL No 45¢ $9 21m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 23m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 23m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 23m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $183 24m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 0¢ $0 24m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 42¢ $14 40m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 41m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 19¢ $3 45m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 45m
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 46m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $21 50m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 1¢ $0 53m
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 67¢ $203 57m
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 57m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 42¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,564.42 · official $23,597.24 (match) · 3500 history records