Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:13:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

21 0x2159…8755 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$156 (+18%) realized +$165 · open −$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip

Net edge+38%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$72per market

Trades / day11.3pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit58%portable

Net worth$618now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+49.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+65.4%	+49.6%	100%	100%	+51.3%
≤30d	3	+65.4%	+49.6%	100%	100%	+51.3%
≤90d	3	+65.4%	+49.6%	100%	100%	+51.3%
all	3	+65.4%	+49.6%	100%	100%	+51.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+49.6%	100%	+51.3%
10%	+35.3%	100%	+36.8%
15%	+22.2%	100%	+23.6%
20%	+10.3%	100%	+11.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +67% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +65% · $-wt +67% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$53 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$618

Realized+$165

Unrealized−$9

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions9

Markets (closed)3 / 12

History coverage1d

Avg bet$72

Trades / day11.3

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	70¢	66¢	$193	$181	−$12 (-6%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	62¢	68¢	$64	$69	+$6 (+9%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	61¢	60¢	$65	$64	−$1 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Over	49¢	48¢	$59	$59	−$1 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5	Over	83¢	81¢	$55	$54	−$1 (-2%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Over	49¢	50¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	Over	77¢	76¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5	Over	85¢	86¢	$41	$41	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$84	+$62	+73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$55	+$29	+53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$97	+$68	+70%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$60	1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$51	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	77¢	$50	1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	85¢	$41	1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	83¢	$55	1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	57¢	$84	4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	65¢	$55	7h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu	BUY Yes	70¢	$195	16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$64	17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	61¢	$66	17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$97	27h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $617.84 · official $617.84 (match) · 15 history records