Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:02:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

21 0x2159…7f39 sports 7 markets active 4d ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL −$241 (-43%) realized −$241 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +226% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +183% what you keep after slip

Net edge+183%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate43%3W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$80per market

Trades / day3.1pace

Fees−$12est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)+194.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+225.8%	+194.8%	43%	29%	-56.5%
≤30d	7	+225.8%	+194.8%	43%	29%	-56.5%
≤90d	7	+225.8%	+194.8%	43%	29%	-56.5%
all	7	+225.8%	+194.8%	43%	29%	-56.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+194.8%	29%	-56.5%
10%	+166.6%	29%	-60.7%
15%	+140.8%	29%	-64.5%
20%	+117.2%	29%	-68.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -52% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +226% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$76 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.17 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$241

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses3 / 4

Est. fees paid−$12

Open positions0

Markets (closed)7 / 7

History coverage4d

Avg bet$80

Trades / day3.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 7 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$306	−$294	-96%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 12	$102	−$7	-6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 12	$66	−$3	-4%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 12	$2	$0	+5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$12	+$18	+158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 12	$73	+$32	+45%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 11	$2	−$2	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	1¢	$11	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Knicks	35¢	$95	5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	11¢	$63	5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$2	5d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	36¢	$102	5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$2	5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	57¢	$104	5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$21	5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	46¢	$50	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	38¢	$12	5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$66	5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$2	6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	38¢	$306	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records