trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 60¢ | 57¢ | $6 | $6 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 62¢ | 62¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 11¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-11%) |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET | Up | 49¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET | Up | 32¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET | Down | 12¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $2 | +$2 | +93% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $2 | +$3 | +165% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET | Feb 06 | $1 | $0 | +24% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET | Feb 06 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET | Feb 05 | $1 | +$1 | +110% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET | Feb 05 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET | Feb 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by February 28, 2026? | Jan 29 | $1 | $0 | -50% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +52.7% | +38.1% | 67% | 67% | +63.1% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +52.7% | +38.1% | 67% | 67% | +63.1% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +52.7% | +38.1% | 67% | 67% | +63.1% |
| all | 9 | -12.0% | -20.4% | 44% | 44% | +7.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.4% | 44% | +7.6% |
| 10% | -28.0% | 44% | -2.7% |
| 15% | -35.0% | 33% | -12.1% |
| 20% | -41.4% | 33% | -20.7% |