Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:41:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x2157…862e
other · 17 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$1 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$29
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)9 / 17
History coverage135d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%
Chart Positions 8 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by February 28, 2026? Yes 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Up 49¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Up 32¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Down 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 06 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 05 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by February 28, 2026? Jan 29 $1 $0 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 79% +$4
crypto 11% −$2
sports 7% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +52.7% +38.1% 67% 67% +63.1%
≤30d 3 +52.7% +38.1% 67% 67% +63.1%
≤90d 3 +52.7% +38.1% 67% 67% +63.1%
all 9 -12.0% -20.4% 44% 44% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 44% +7.6%
10% -28.0% 44% -2.7%
15% -35.0% 33% -12.1%
20% -41.4% 33% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.63 · official $28.63 (match) · 27 history records