Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:06:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x2155…3428
weather · 734 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$821 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$817 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized−$817
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses217 / 515
Open positions2
Markets (closed)732 / 734
History coverage47d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day64.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 732 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$2
14 days−$180
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 13? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 13? No 47¢ 47¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 13? Yes 52¢ 53¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 5? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 27? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 24? No 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 14? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 25? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 5? No 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 27? No 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 23? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 9? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 76°F or higher on June 3? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on May 24? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 8? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 14? No 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 24? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 16? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 25? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $33 −$25 -75%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $7 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $52 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $31 +$6 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $31 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $30 +$26 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $12 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $14 −$8 -60%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$7 +251%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $14 +$8 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $51 −$35 -70%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $17 +$5 +29%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $19 +$6 +31%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $28 +$13 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 12 $21 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $9 +$11 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $11 +$4 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $15 −$9 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $43 +$7 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 11 $33 +$6 +20%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +252%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 11 $19 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$821
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 12¢ $1 35m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 11¢ $1 35m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 52¢ $1 40m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 52¢ $2 41m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 48¢ $2 59m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 48¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 47¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 47¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 15¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 15¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June SELL Yes 23¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 14¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 54¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 13¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 12¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 13¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -3.9% -13.1% 43% 36% -8.1%
≤30d 315 -21.6% -29.0% 24% 23% -14.0%
≤90d 732 -25.5% -32.6% 30% 27% -22.5%
all 732 -25.5% -32.6% 30% 27% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover64.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.6% 27% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -39.0% 23% -29.9%
15% -44.9% 20% -36.7%
20% -50.3% 16% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.69 · official $21.69 (match) · 3500 history records