Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
21 0x2155…eec8 crypto 988 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,042 (-18%) realized −$3,042 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate65%643W / 343L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 91d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$54
other 16% −$171
sports 3% −$385
world 1% −$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -14.8% -22.9% 50% 50% -47.4%
≤30d 38 -3.4% -12.6% 53% 53% -35.2%
≤90d 875 -7.9% -16.7% 65% 33% -17.8%
all 986 -7.3% -16.1% 65% 37% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 37% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 20% -24.6%
15% -31.5% 15% -31.9%
20% -38.2% 11% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized−$3,042
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses643 / 343
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)986 / 988
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 986 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 +$3 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$17 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$38 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $46 +$30 +65%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $81 −$6 -7%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $101 −$5 -5%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $61 −$60 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $143 −$140 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $61 +$35 +57%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $121 −$120 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $182 −$180 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$35 +86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 +$20 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 +$55 +134%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $31 −$12 -39%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $26 +$67 +262%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $76 +$71 +93%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 21 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30 +$35 +114%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $106 +$55 +52%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $92 +$133 +146%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $76 +$80 +105%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 08 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $25 +$33 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $24 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 2d
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $51 3d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $51 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $51 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 4d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $37 4d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 47¢ $76 4d
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 62¢ $96 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $102 5d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $40 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $61 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $102 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $143 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $61 6d
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 64¢ $101 6d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 49¢ $81 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.29 · official $160.30 (match) · 3500 history records