Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2154…4098 crypto 963 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 146d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,595 (-2%) realized −$3,595 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate97%932W / 31L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,191
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 123 -2.5% -11.7% 97% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 901 -1.8% -11.2% 97% 0% -15.4%
all 963 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 6% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 6% -11.9%
10% -18.5% 3% -20.4%
15% -26.4% 1% -28.1%
20% -33.6% 1% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$366 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$3,595
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses932 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)963 / 963
History coverage146d ⚠
Avg bet$163
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 963 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 20 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 20 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 20 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 20 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 20 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 20 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 20 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 20 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 19 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 19 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 19 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.05 · official $5.05 (match) · 3500 history records