Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:35:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x2154…e2ce
sports · 61 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$7 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses35 / 25
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage8d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 1 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$12
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Golden State Valkyries 56¢ 44¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 53¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Knicks 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Vitality 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Portugal vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage FULL SENSE 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Vitality 47¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS - Game 4 Winner EVOS 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: GamerLegion (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) GamerLegion 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner MOUZ 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner NRG 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +54%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 12 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$4 +78%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 +$3 +89%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $2 +$2 +95%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +93%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $2 +$2 +80%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +158%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +73%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $7 +$6 +90%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 11 $5 +$5 +104%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$2 +79%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 11 $3 +$4 +150%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $3 +$3 +76%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $3 +$3 +93%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 11 $2 +$3 +151%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID - Game 1 Winne Jun 11 $3 +$3 +121%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -93%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 10 $3 +$3 +103%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $3 +$3 +101%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $3 +$3 +101%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 09 $3 −$2 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 09 $4 −$3 -99%
Spread: Indonesia (-1.5) Jun 09 $5 −$2 -30%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $3 +$3 +101%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 08 $2 +$2 +83%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 08 $2 +$2 +93%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 08 $3 +$2 +89%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 +$2 +42%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 07 $5 +$4 +83%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: GamerLegion (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$5 +105%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs M80 (+3.5) Jun 07 $4 +$4 +100%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $3 −$3 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 07 $4 +$3 +82%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $3 +$3 +101%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $3 +$1 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 62% −$7
other 38% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 56¢ $4 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $8 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 2h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) BUY Vitality 47¢ $5 10h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 10h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 99¢ $9 10h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 10h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $6 11h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 99¢ $4 11h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $5 11h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 11h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 12h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 52¢ $3 12h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $5 12h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 57¢ $3 13h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 13h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4 16h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Under 99¢ $4 16h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 17h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 38¢ $5 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 26h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 52¢ $7 34h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $10 34h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $4 34h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $2 35h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 35h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $5 35h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) SELL MOUZ 99¢ $6 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +15.7% +4.7% 59% 59% -4.2%
≤30d 60 +14.9% +4.0% 58% 58% -6.6%
≤90d 60 +14.9% +4.0% 58% 58% -6.6%
all 60 +14.9% +4.0% 58% 58% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.0% 58% -6.6%
10% -6.0% 58% -15.6%
15% -15.0% 58% -23.7%
20% -23.4% 57% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.11 · official $3.11 (match) · 99 history records