Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:17:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2153…6848 crypto 439 markets active 4d ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,063 (-6%) realized −$7,941 · open −$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%242W / 192L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$405
14 days+$31
30 days−$578
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$10,127
other 1% −$204
world 0% −$361
sports 0% +$110
tech 0% +$11
finance 0% −$192
culture 0% −$39
economics 0% +$4
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +20.3% +8.8% 61% 49% -11.6%
≤30d 117 +11.3% +0.7% 54% 46% -11.7%
≤90d 394 -2.4% -11.7% 56% 45% -16.2%
all 434 -4.5% -13.6% 56% 44% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 44% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 32% -25.7%
15% -29.4% 25% -32.8%
20% -36.3% 16% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$184 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$7,941
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses242 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)434 / 439
History coverage95d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 434 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $114 $71 −$43 (-38%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $65 $39 −$26 (-40%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 94¢ 88¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-94%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $34 $1 −$33 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 149 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $314 −$267 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $615 −$300 -49%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $207 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $96 −$91 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $206 +$166 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $207 +$116 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $715 +$290 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $323 −$311 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $302 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $716 +$327 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $308 −$159 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $106 −$90 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $334 −$25 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $222 +$88 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $919 +$381 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $821 +$379 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $118 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $208 +$246 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $529 −$333 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $609 +$177 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $521 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $403 +$37 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $602 +$638 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $335 +$254 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $232 −$25 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $208 +$104 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $208 +$259 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $207 +$150 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $227 +$34 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $127 +$34 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$49 +48%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $17 +$3 +17%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$53 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $516 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $1,072 −$1,037 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $309 +$44 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $571 −$100 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $820 +$67 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $47 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $314 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $142 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $305 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $96 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $28 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $203 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $205 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $306 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.14 · official $121.23 (match) · 2362 history records