Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:36:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x2152…16b4
sports · 7 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$81 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$75 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2
Realized−$75
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 1 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$75
14 days−$75
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes $7 $2 −$5 (-75%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Team WE 49¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $378 −$152 -40%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $136 +$77 +57%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $49 −$6 -12%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $35 +$15 +42%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +157%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 93% −$66
other 7% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +11.2% +0.6% 50% 50% -24.6%
≤30d 6 +11.2% +0.6% 50% 50% -24.6%
≤90d 6 +11.2% +0.6% 50% 50% -24.6%
all 6 +11.2% +0.6% 50% 50% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 50% -24.6%
10% -9.1% 50% -31.8%
15% -17.8% 50% -38.4%
20% -25.9% 33% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.83 · official $1.83 (match) · 19 history records