Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:04:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x2150…fa7b
crypto · 1026 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$615 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$604 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$60
Realized−$604
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses280 / 742
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1022 / 1026
History coverage73d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 4 History 1022 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$104
14 days−$162
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? No 90¢ 90¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? No 85¢ 86¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Will ZywOo reach 36 HLTV MVP awards by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? Yes 36¢ 24¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 13 $26 $0 -2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Jun 13 $30 $0 -0%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 13 $13 −$1 -5%
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? Jun 13 $27 −$5 -17%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 13 $28 −$8 -30%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $14 −$1 -5%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 13 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -7%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $29 −$1 -4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -8%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $14 −$1 -5%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $15 −$1 -5%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -65%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $14 −$1 -5%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $15 −$1 -5%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -85%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $12 −$6 -49%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 13 $25 −$1 -2%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $6 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026? Jun 10 $20 −$1 -3%
Will UNI reach $14.00 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Jun 10 $42 +$2 +4%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20 Jun 10 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Keith Morgan win the 2026 Watford mayoral election? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 20-26 2026? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 14 to Apr Jun 10 $48 −$6 -14%
Will Peter Taylor win the 2026 Watford mayoral election? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end between May 11-17 2026? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Jun 10 $199 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 10 $352 −$16 -4%
Will the DHS shutdown end after July 31 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jim Baird be the Republican nominee for IN-04? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026? Jun 10 $52 +$3 +6%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 12-15%? Jun 10 $60 −$4 -7%
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-A Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 10 $147 −$5 -4%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi? Jun 10 $69 −$9 -13%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 27-May 3 2026? Jun 10 $4 +$27 +653%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Jun 10 $166 +$2 +1%
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene Jun 10 $100 −$12 -12%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m? Jun 10 $160 −$5 -3%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1 Jun 10 $83 −$11 -13%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by May 31? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will flameZ be the highest-rated player at BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 202 Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 38% −$232
crypto 20% −$165
culture 12% −$37
politics 11% −$29
tech 8% −$81
finance 6% +$8
world 4% −$36
sports 3% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2m
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 35m
Will ZywOo reach 36 HLTV MVP awards by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 59m
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 1h
Will ZywOo reach 36 HLTV MVP awards by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will ZywOo reach 36 HLTV MVP awards by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 1h
Will ZywOo reach 36 HLTV MVP awards by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 90¢ $27 2h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 85¢ $26 2h
Will ZywOo reach 36 HLTV MVP awards by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2h
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4h
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4h
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4h
Senegal leading at halftime? SELL No 87¢ $26 4h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY No 88¢ $26 4h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $30 5h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $30 5h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 53¢ $13 5h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $13 5h
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 12h
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $22 12h
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 6¢ $20 12h
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $27 12h
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 7¢ $28 12h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $14 12h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $12 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -13.5% -21.7% 15% 5% -13.9%
≤30d 65 -21.3% -28.8% 12% 5% -15.7%
≤90d 1022 -36.3% -42.4% 27% 26% -17.2%
all 1022 -36.3% -42.4% 27% 26% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.4% 26% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -47.9% 26% -25.1%
15% -53.0% 26% -32.4%
20% -57.6% 25% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.93 · official $59.93 (match) · 3500 history records