Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:35:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x214f…3e03 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% $0
other 29% −$1
sports 12% −$6
crypto 8% $0
politics 7% −$3
tech 5% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.3% -11.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -1.3% -10.7% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 -1.3% -10.7% 25% 0% -9.5%
all 33 -5.3% -14.3% 21% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 0% -10.9%
10% -22.5% 0% -19.4%
15% -30.0% 0% -27.2%
20% -36.9% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage254d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $34 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $59 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $63 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $59 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $4 $0 -2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Dec 30 $7 $0 +6%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21? Dec 17 $23 $0 -1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 04 $1 −$1 -39%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 27 $14 −$3 -20%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $27 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $5 $0 -8%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $17 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 21 $6 $0 -2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the #1 searched person on Google this year Oct 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 20 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Oct 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Oct 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $33 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $34 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $39 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $22 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $10 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $49 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $7 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $7 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $12 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $51 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $63 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $18 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $35 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $6 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $23 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 22d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $3 170d
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21? SELL No 100¢ $1 183d
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 196d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL No 24¢ $12 203d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 30¢ $14 208d
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? SELL Yes 43¢ $14 208d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records