Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x214d…e581 other 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized −$28 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate60%44W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$32
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$47
world 24% +$18
politics 18% +$23
sports 11% +$8
tech 3% −$2
crypto 2% +$1
culture 1% −$19
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 16 -1.0% -10.4% 56% 31% -12.2%
≤90d 23 -1.9% -11.3% 61% 26% -10.5%
all 73 -3.0% -12.3% 60% 25% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 25% -10.3%
10% -20.7% 18% -18.9%
15% -28.3% 12% -26.7%
20% -35.4% 7% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses44 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)73 / 80
History coverage594d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 82¢ 85¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $120 +$2 +2%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$9 +307%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $15 +$7 +44%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $200 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 07 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 07 $25 +$14 +54%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 11 $124 +$2 +2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 11 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $23 +$14 +61%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 11 $170 +$3 +2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 05 $66 $0 -0%
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 20 Apr 05 $18 −$18 -100%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 05 $70 +$2 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 02 $50 −$7 -13%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Mar 02 $15 −$2 -14%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 02 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $11 −$2 -19%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Feb 06 $60 −$1 -2%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Feb 06 $87 −$3 -3%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 03 $16 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Jan 03 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Jan 03 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 03 $64 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 04 $70 −$13 -19%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Dec 04 $62 +$2 +3%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 09 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? Nov 09 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Nov 09 $24 +$11 +45%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 27 $50 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 04 $123 −$1 -1%
Will R win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? Oct 04 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 10 $33 −$33 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus Sep 10 $28 +$6 +20%
Will France airdrop aid into Gaza? Sep 10 $46 +$3 +6%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? Sep 10 $34 +$2 +6%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 10 $84 $0 -0%
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio Aug 01 $28 +$5 +19%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 01 $58 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $6 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $77 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $10 12d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 12d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 12d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 12d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $5 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $35 12d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 13d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $5 13d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $147 13d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $20 13d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $20 20d
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $120 20d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 20d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $150 20d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $201 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $52 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 82¢ $50 47d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $200 47d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the BUY Yes 64¢ $25 47d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $50 47d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $126 47d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 98¢ $28 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.20 · official $180.20 (match) · 323 history records