Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x214d…45f7 crypto 88 markets active 1d ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-11%) realized −$13 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%32W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$8
14 days−$5
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$7
other 10% −$3
sports 9% −$1
culture 3% −$3
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -19.9% -27.5% 45% 35% -31.1%
≤30d 83 -15.6% -23.6% 37% 35% -23.4%
≤90d 84 -15.4% -23.4% 38% 35% -23.1%
all 84 -15.4% -23.4% 38% 35% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 35% -23.1%
10% -30.7% 32% -30.5%
15% -37.4% 27% -37.2%
20% -43.6% 23% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses32 / 52
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)84 / 88
History coverage29d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+138%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Olivier Faure be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 20¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$2 +159%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 24 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 24 $1 +$1 +101%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 24 $2 +$1 +27%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 23 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. LG Twins May 22 $1 +$1 +129%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 22 $1 +$3 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 22 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 22 $1 +$2 +152%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +119%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 21 $2 $0 -11%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 21 $2 −$1 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 31h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 71¢ $1 9d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 9d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.85 · official $4.85 (match) · 155 history records