Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:08:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x214c…6378 crypto 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (825 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$74,173 (-121%) realized −$74,146 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate62%86W / 52L
Whale WR9%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$442per market
Trades / day824.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (825 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 +2.2% -7.6% 62% 2% -8.9%
≤30d 138 +2.2% -7.6% 62% 2% -8.9%
≤90d 138 +2.2% -7.6% 62% 2% -8.9%
all 138 +2.2% -7.6% 62% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover824.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 2% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 1% -17.6%
15% -24.5% 1% -25.6%
20% -31.9% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 9% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
24.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$500
Realized−$74,146
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses86 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)9%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$442
Trades / day824.9
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 53¢ 60¢ $265 $297 +$32 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Down 46¢ 40¢ $230 $202 −$27 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $497 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $496 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $117 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $180 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $248 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $338 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $513 −$13 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $501 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $496 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $499 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $500 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $490 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $498 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $512 −$12 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $497 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $505 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $35 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $496 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $268 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $539 −$39 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $500 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $500 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $497 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $512 −$12 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $506 −$7 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $504 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $501 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $470 +$30 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $490 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $500 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $978 +$22 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $497 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $553 −$53 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $497 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $532 −$32 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $501 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $500 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $499 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $500 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $29 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $23 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $22 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $16 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $16 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.95 · official $499.94 (match) · 3500 history records