Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x2146…2a1a sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$132 (+1%) realized +$1,459 · open −$1,327
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate92%12W / 1L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$655per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2,811now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$10
sports 40% −$31
other 12% −$1,254
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.4% -12.6% 90% 20% -7.8%
≤30d 10 -3.4% -12.6% 90% 20% -7.8%
≤90d 10 -3.4% -12.6% 90% 20% -7.8%
all 13 -2.6% -11.8% 92% 15% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 15% -9.0%
10% -20.3% 0% -17.7%
15% -28.0% 0% -25.6%
20% -35.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$75 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$2,811
Realized+$1,459
Unrealized−$1,327
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses12 / 1
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)13 / 19
History coverage134d
Avg bet$655
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Under 95¢ 98¢ $2,495 $2,582 +$87 (+4%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Under 98¢ 89¢ $210 $191 −$19 (-9%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Under 97¢ 100¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) England 95¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
England leading at halftime? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $1,278 $1 −$1,277 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 93¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $100 −$75 -75%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $250 +$7 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,000 +$73 +7%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $378 +$9 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $124 +$4 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 5? Feb 05 $2,005 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 4? Feb 04 $2,001 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 3? Feb 03 $1,999 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 96¢ $7 11m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $20 12m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $50 12m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $120 12m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $300 12m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $300 13m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $401 13m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $300 13m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $198 15m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $200 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $300 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $300 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 97¢ $25 28m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 24¢ $25 29m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $300 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $300 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $328 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $20 2h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 95¢ $10 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,810.83 · official $2,674.80 · 67 history records