Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
21 0x2146…d41b sports 308 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101,206 (-8%) realized −$101,104 · open −$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%106W / 196L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,888per market
Trades / day59.9pace
Fees−$20,146est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13,330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$203,330
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -67.8% -70.9% 17% 17% -55.8%
≤30d 139 -10.7% -19.2% 32% 31% -29.1%
≤90d 302 -12.6% -20.9% 35% 34% -26.0%
all 302 -12.6% -20.9% 35% 34% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 34% -26.0%
10% -28.5% 33% -33.0%
15% ← realistic here -35.4% 33% -39.5%
20% -41.7% 32% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$5,453) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,068 vs −$3,237 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$13,330
Realized−$101,104
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses106 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$20,146
Open positions6
Markets (closed)302 / 308
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$3,888
Trades / day59.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Power Rangers 38¢ 100¢ $1,953 $5,097 +$3,144 (+161%)
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Power Rangers 46¢ 74¢ $1,595 $2,562 +$967 (+61%)
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Chicago Sky 25¢ 22¢ $2,551 $2,286 −$265 (-10%)
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner InterActive Philippines 15¢ 84¢ $278 $1,537 +$1,259 (+452%)
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury Seattle Storm 31¢ 30¢ $1,396 $1,348 −$49 (-3%)
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner OG 57¢ 16¢ $1,710 $495 −$1,215 (-71%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Grind Back 30¢ 0¢ $2,689 $5 −$2,684 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 172 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Jun 18 $877 −$864 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 18 $716 −$706 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 18 $2,537 +$2,365 +93%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 17 $2,666 −$2,602 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,045 −$1,030 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 13 $2,327 −$2,290 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 12 $1,577 −$1,552 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $2,427 +$3,533 +146%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 11 $383 −$380 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 10 $715 −$700 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $4,467 −$1,228 -28%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $5,380 +$1,299 +24%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $6,874 −$6,737 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $4,376 −$4,361 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $14,639 −$14,490 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $6,081 +$7,168 +118%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $10,753 −$10,653 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $1,029 +$23,108 +2246%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $3,184 −$3,184 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,404 −$1,379 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $4,522 −$4,480 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $12,116 −$6,280 -52%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $9,912 −$9,067 -92%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $4,724 +$276 +6%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $2,636 −$1,441 -55%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $15,323 −$15,072 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $2,921 −$2,870 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1,323 −$1,316 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $1,470 −$1,454 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $5,758 −$5,700 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $8,208 −$8,098 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $3,285 −$3,282 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $3,731 −$3,680 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $4,772 −$2,573 -54%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $10,354 −$10,305 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $5,458 −$5,453 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2,038 +$3,517 +172%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty Jun 03 $1,405 −$1,373 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 02 $2,590 −$2,554 -99%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings Jun 01 $1,437 −$1,402 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 01 $264 −$259 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $8,404 +$1,214 +14%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5) May 30 $2,535 −$2,500 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-4.5) May 30 $2,861 −$2,818 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 30 $3,402 −$3,399 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner May 30 $4,964 −$4,919 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $6,189 −$6,186 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $9,440 +$6,560 +70%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $10,380 −$10,264 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics May 30 $2,606 +$2,916 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $108 14m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $4 14m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $1 14m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $39 14m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $50 14m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $99 14m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $96 14m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $11 14m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $116 14m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $112 14m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $114 14m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $114 14m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $55 14m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $5 14m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $570 14m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 25¢ $112 23m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 57¢ $41 28m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 57¢ $3 28m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 57¢ $1 28m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 57¢ $3 28m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 57¢ $142 28m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 57¢ $14 28m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 57¢ $143 28m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 57¢ $14 28m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 57¢ $393 28m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 57¢ $57 28m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 57¢ $391 28m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 57¢ $27 29m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 57¢ $4 29m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 57¢ $363 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,330.21 · official $13,554.29 · 3500 history records