Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:57:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
21 0x2141…0eff sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$592 (+19%) realized +$622 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$148
7 days+$163
14 days+$570
30 days+$570
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$331
other 19% +$249
crypto 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +16.7% +5.6% 58% 58% -2.3%
≤30d 29 +36.4% +23.4% 62% 62% +8.3%
≤90d 29 +36.4% +23.4% 62% 62% +8.3%
all 29 +36.4% +23.4% 62% 62% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.4% 62% +8.3%
10% +11.6% 62% -2.0%
15% +0.8% 48% -11.5%
20% -9.1% 38% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$62 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$622
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage9d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 40¢ $172 $142 −$30 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $260 +$108 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $199 +$61 +30%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $66 −$65 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $201 +$65 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $29 +$22 +74%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $290 +$138 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $33 +$89 +272%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 +$93 +237%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 +$39 +93%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$33 +162%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $271 +$92 +34%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$60 +59%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$61 +119%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$61 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$77 +76%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $412 +$123 +30%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 53m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $149 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 37¢ $20 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $368 16h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 70¢ $260 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $260 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $199 27h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 55¢ $66 30h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $265 42h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $201 46h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $102 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $99 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $29 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $428 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $290 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 5d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 99¢ $122 5d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $33 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $132 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $39 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $41 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 51¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $101 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $53 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $20 6d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $363 6d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $271 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.75 · official $141.75 (match) · 53 history records