Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x2141…0add
crypto · 10 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$92 -43%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$92 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day73.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 1 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$92
14 days−$92
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $67 −$64 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$23 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$31 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $43 +$13 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$92
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-62.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -58.8% -62.7% 22% 22% -50.2%
≤30d 9 -58.8% -62.7% 22% 22% -50.2%
≤90d 9 -58.8% -62.7% 22% 22% -50.2%
all 9 -58.8% -62.7% 22% 22% -50.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover73.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -62.7% 22% -50.2%
10% ← realistic here -66.3% 22% -54.9%
15% -69.6% 11% -59.3%
20% -72.5% 11% -63.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.99 (match) · 76 history records