trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -37.6% | -43.5% | 40% | 40% | +16.6% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -52.2% | -56.8% | 33% | 27% | -6.2% |
| all | 15 | -52.2% | -56.8% | 33% | 27% | -6.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -56.8% | 27% | -6.2% |
| 10% | -60.9% | 13% | -15.2% |
| 15% | -64.7% | 13% | -23.4% |
| 20% | -68.2% | 7% | -30.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | No | 86¢ | 95¢ | $1,160 | $1,280 | +$121 (+10%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 70¢ | 86¢ | $252 | $308 | +$56 (+22%) |
| SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? | Down | 43¢ | 57¢ | $100 | $134 | +$34 (+34%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | No | 74¢ | 81¢ | $100 | $110 | +$10 (+10%) |
| Netanyahu out by July 31? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starmer out by June 22, 2026? | Jun 22 | $15 | −$15 | -97% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $354 | +$132 | +37% |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m | Jun 06 | $8 | −$8 | -95% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee | Jun 06 | $5 | −$5 | -95% |
| Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? | Jun 06 | $13 | +$9 | +75% |
| Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | May 19 | $13 | −$13 | -98% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 17 | $126 | +$27 | +21% |
| Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $10 | +$2 | +16% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: May | May 12 | $10 | −$4 | -39% |
| Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | May 06 | $9 | −$9 | -96% |
| Will France win Eurovision 2026? | May 06 | $9 | −$9 | -96% |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | May 06 | $17 | −$16 | -96% |
| Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | May 06 | $19 | −$18 | -96% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | May 06 | $51 | −$50 | -97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET | Apr 26 | $1 | $0 | +7% |