Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
21 0x2140…5790 other 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$11,137 (+13%) realized +$9,120 · open +$2,017
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate62%123W / 75L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$388per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$16,477now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$83
14 days−$951
30 days−$434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$7,238
politics 20% +$2,071
world 20% −$2,180
tech 6% −$535
sports 5% +$2,034
culture 3% +$1,000
economics 2% +$649
crypto 1% +$411
finance 1% +$730
weather 1% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -14.4% -22.5% 33% 33% +12.5%
≤30d 11 +7.6% -2.6% 73% 55% -17.7%
≤90d 23 +10.5% -0.0% 74% 61% +6.5%
all 198 +19.6% +8.2% 62% 51% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 51% +2.8%
10% -2.1% 42% -7.0%
15% -11.6% 32% -16.0%
20% -20.2% 25% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$247 vs −$284 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$16,477
Realized+$9,120
Unrealized+$2,017
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses123 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions29
Markets (closed)198 / 227
History coverage266d
Avg bet$388
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 68¢ 100¢ $1,606 $2,354 +$748 (+47%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 52¢ 72¢ $1,600 $2,231 +$631 (+39%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? No 16¢ 94¢ $229 $1,335 +$1,107 (+484%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 39¢ 96¢ $505 $1,240 +$735 (+146%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1,087 $1,091 +$4 (+0%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 71¢ 76¢ $919 $979 +$60 (+7%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $978 $977 −$1 (-0%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 72¢ 72¢ $761 $756 −$5 (-1%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 33¢ 14¢ $1,794 $732 −$1,062 (-59%)
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 77¢ 99¢ $467 $602 +$135 (+29%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 84¢ 92¢ $433 $477 +$44 (+10%)
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? No 77¢ 87¢ $414 $471 +$57 (+14%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 50¢ 46¢ $401 $365 −$36 (-9%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 76¢ $260 $331 +$72 (+28%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $310 $309 −$2 (-1%)
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? No 90¢ 87¢ $309 $299 −$10 (-3%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $294 $296 +$2 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 15¢ $420 $238 −$182 (-43%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? No 79¢ 80¢ $215 $219 +$4 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 39¢ $254 $215 −$39 (-15%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 54¢ 36¢ $260 $176 −$84 (-32%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 81¢ 88¢ $147 $158 +$12 (+8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $170 $148 −$22 (-13%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 44¢ 42¢ $142 $136 −$6 (-5%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 45¢ 44¢ $136 $134 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? Jun 14 $12 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $260 +$151 +58%
Will Ro Khanna advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 10 $1,458 +$125 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $1,159 −$1,159 -100%
Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat? May 30 $1 $0 +17%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? May 30 $4 +$2 +42%
Will Philip Funderburg win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary e May 27 $131 +$10 +7%
Did a crypto hedge fund blow up? May 27 $232 +$168 +72%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 27 $1,268 +$200 +16%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 27 $215 +$137 +64%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 24 $637 −$189 -30%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 11 $1,154 −$538 -47%
Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security App Apr 01 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31? Apr 01 $106 +$6 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $103 +$17 +16%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Apr 01 $144 +$18 +12%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Apr 01 $180 +$60 +33%
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31? Apr 01 $300 +$44 +14%
Will a 10% US blanket tariff be in effect on March 31? Apr 01 $1,269 +$207 +16%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31? Mar 31 $1,463 +$2,272 +155%
Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be below 65%? Mar 28 $71 +$35 +49%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 19 $459 −$459 -100%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 16 $433 −$433 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $847 +$267 +32%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 14 $2,464 −$174 -7%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.2% an Mar 13 $211 +$74 +35%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $419 +$436 +104%
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? Mar 01 $383 +$43 +11%
Péter Magyar sextape released by March 31 Mar 01 $193 +$59 +31%
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5 Feb 28 $1,077 +$419 +39%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 25 $499 +$353 +71%
Natural Disaster in 2026? Feb 24 $994 +$267 +27%
Will Microsoft dip to $390 in February? Feb 23 $712 +$870 +122%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 22 $460 +$122 +27%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Feb 21 $71 +$103 +144%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026 Feb 21 $514 +$710 +138%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 20 $172 +$57 +33%
Will Trump say "Please" or "Thank" 20+ times during Board of Peace eve Feb 19 $14 +$7 +49%
Will Tesla dip to $383 in February? Feb 18 $746 −$746 -100%
Will Amazon dip to $192 in February? Feb 17 $1,013 −$1,013 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 17 $228 +$194 +85%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 on February 17? Feb 17 $419 −$419 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on February 17? Feb 17 $132 −$132 -100%
ChatGPT Full Outage by February 28? Feb 17 $42 +$797 +1900%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 10 to Feb 17 $1,252 +$834 +67%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15? Feb 16 $124 +$241 +194%
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market cl Feb 15 $2,012 +$1,227 +61%
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close Feb 15 $800 +$447 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $980 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,087 25h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $761 25h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $311 3d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 89¢ $48 3d
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $12 3d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $110 4d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 89¢ $246 4d
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 50¢ $409 5d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 79¢ $217 5d
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $410 5d
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $23 5d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $261 5d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $0 5d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $0 6d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $150 6d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $7 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 60¢ $52 7d
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY No 45¢ $139 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $263 7d
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $12 7d
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $201 7d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 44¢ $18 7d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 44¢ $128 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $68 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $260 8d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $15 8d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $131 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,477.14 · official $16,477.28 (match) · 1225 history records