Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
21 0x2140…0e12 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$52 (+2%) realized +$58 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$673now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$84
other 7% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +43.6% +29.9% 73% 73% -2.1%
≤30d 11 +43.6% +29.9% 73% 73% -2.1%
≤90d 11 +43.6% +29.9% 73% 73% -2.1%
all 11 +43.6% +29.9% 73% 73% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.9% 73% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here +17.5% 64% -11.5%
15% +6.1% 55% -20.1%
20% -4.3% 55% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$94 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$673
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions7
Markets (closed)11 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Walczaki 60¢ 60¢ $440 $436 −$4 (-1%)
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell Kenta Miyoshi 89¢ 90¢ $181 $181 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Nemesis 63¢ 62¢ $23 $23 −$1 (-2%)
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) Virtus.pro 66¢ 55¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-17%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Mentality Monster 25¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
British Columbia Lions vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats Hamilton Tiger-Cats 52¢ 55¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Set Handicap: Djere (-1.5) vs Ofner (+1.5) Ofner 63¢ 68¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? Jun 19 $141 +$29 +21%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $119 −$119 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $540 −$155 -29%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $32 +$28 +86%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $162 +$154 +95%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Simeon Stankovic vs Boris Butulija Jun 18 $34 +$8 +23%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 +$3 +97%
ITF San Gregorio: Beatrise Zeltina vs Masha Lazarenko Jun 18 $71 +$41 +57%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $216 +$134 +62%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $2 +$3 +172%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti Jun 18 $134 −$7 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 25¢ $10 38m
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) BUY Virtus.pro 66¢ $13 48m
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell BUY Kenta Miyoshi 89¢ $9 1h
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell BUY Kenta Miyoshi 90¢ $7 1h
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell BUY Kenta Miyoshi 90¢ $83 1h
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell BUY Kenta Miyoshi 89¢ $36 1h
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell BUY Kenta Miyoshi 89¢ $46 1h
Set Handicap: Djere (-1.5) vs Ofner (+1.5) BUY Ofner 63¢ $5 2h
British Columbia Lions vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats BUY Hamilton Tiger-Cats 52¢ $7 2h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 63¢ $23 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 60¢ $445 4h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 70¢ $315 9h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 65¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Infinite 100¢ $317 9h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 68¢ $48 9h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 69¢ $151 11h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $119 11h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 70¢ $25 11h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 53¢ $32 12h
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 99¢ $15 12h
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 99¢ $84 12h
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 59¢ $42 12h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 100¢ $350 12h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 61¢ $216 15h
ITF San Gregorio: Beatrise Zeltina vs Masha Lazarenko BUY Beatrise Zeltina 63¢ $71 15h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti SELL Cash/Tracy 43¢ $127 15h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 51¢ $81 16h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti BUY Cash/Tracy 44¢ $134 16h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 36¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 50¢ $81 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $672.69 · official $672.69 (match) · 41 history records