Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:39:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x213e…5e0f weather 241 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,533 (+9%) realized +$2,655 · open −$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%118W / 148L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day95.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,793
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -46.1% -51.3% 32% 32% -37.5%
≤30d 229 -26.1% -33.1% 45% 45% -8.3%
≤90d 266 -29.2% -36.0% 44% 44% -10.4%
all 266 -29.2% -36.0% 44% 44% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.0% 44% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -42.1% 35% -19.0%
15% -47.7% 26% -26.8%
20% -52.8% 19% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$74 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$410
Realized+$2,655
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses118 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)266 / 241
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$123
Trades / day95.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 16? Yes 27¢ 61¢ $86 $195 +$108 (+126%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Yes 62¢ 96¢ $66 $100 +$35 (+53%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Yes 57¢ 72¢ $45 $57 +$11 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Yes 47¢ 14¢ $119 $37 −$83 (-69%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 16? Yes 69¢ 96¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 16? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $199 $0 −$199 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 148 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 16 $131 −$131 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 11? Jun 16 $83 −$87 -104%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ap Jun 16 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ap Jun 16 $124 −$115 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 2? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 24? Jun 16 $199 −$196 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 12? Jun 16 $301 −$306 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 44-45°F on April 30? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ap Jun 16 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 16 $217 −$217 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 26? Jun 16 $78 −$82 -105%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 1? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 5? Jun 16 $21 −$19 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 30 Jun 16 $40 −$22 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on May 11? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 29 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 29? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 6? Jun 16 $140 −$135 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 30 Jun 16 $123 −$136 -111%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on Apri Jun 16 $145 −$149 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 6? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 16 $33 −$33 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 26 Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on May 3? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ap Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Jun 16 $125 −$121 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 29 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $138 +$69 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $172 +$262 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $17 +$41 +243%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $70 +$78 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $48 −$48 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $286 +$141 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $159 −$159 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $218 −$217 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $161 −$160 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $80 −$79 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 55¢ $3 9m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 42¢ $7 11m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 78¢ $6 12m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 78¢ $6 12m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 25m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 25m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 27m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 28m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 22¢ $2 29m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 19¢ $19 29m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 58¢ $5 32m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 33m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 37¢ $3 43m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 21¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $7 46m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 30¢ $6 47m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 55¢ $6 51m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 51m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 65¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 71¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 71¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 55¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 55¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $410.12 · official $417.68 · 3500 history records