Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x213b…362e crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$82 (+40%) realized +$125 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$9
crypto 33% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -23.2% -30.5% 29% 29% -1.1%
≤30d 7 -23.2% -30.5% 29% 29% -1.1%
≤90d 7 -23.2% -30.5% 29% 29% -1.1%
all 7 -23.2% -30.5% 29% 29% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 29% -1.1%
10% -37.2% 29% -10.5%
15% -43.2% 29% -19.2%
20% -48.8% 29% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$15 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$125
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winner FOKUS 24¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $17 −$13 -78%
Set 2 Winner: Quinn vs Kopriva Jun 25 $42 −$42 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Quinn vs Kopriva Jun 25 $49 +$75 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$17 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 24¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $17 1h
Set 2 Winner: Quinn vs Kopriva BUY Kopriva 52¢ $42 1h
Set 1 Winner: Quinn vs Kopriva SELL Kopriva 100¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 1h
Set 1 Winner: Quinn vs Kopriva BUY Kopriva 39¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 13 history records