Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:19:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x213a…13df crypto 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$35 (-10%) realized −$42 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate90%9W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +16.3% +5.2% 90% 40% -21.3%
≤30d 10 +16.3% +5.2% 90% 40% -21.3%
≤90d 10 +16.3% +5.2% 90% 40% -21.3%
all 10 +16.3% +5.2% 90% 40% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.2% 40% -21.3%
10% -4.8% 20% -28.8%
15% -14.0% 10% -35.7%
20% -22.5% 10% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$91 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses9 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 0¢ 32¢ $0 $7 +$7 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 28 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $71 +$22 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$9 +181%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.70 · official $6.70 (match) · 28 history records