Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:40:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x213a…c277 crypto 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$188 (-14%) realized −$188 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$83
14 days−$83
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$105
other 13% −$84
world 4% +$2
politics 4% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-46.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 44 -41.1% -46.7% 39% 25% -27.2%
all 44 -41.1% -46.7% 39% 25% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.7% 25% -27.2%
10% -51.8% 14% -34.2%
15% -56.4% 7% -40.5%
20% -60.7% 7% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$188
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage50d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $118 −$83 -71%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 17 $47 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 05 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 04 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 04 $26 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 04 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 04 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 04 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 03 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 03 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 03 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 03 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 03 $21 −$15 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 03 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 03 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 03 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 03 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 03 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 02 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 02 $151 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 02 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 02 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 02 $46 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 02 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 02 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 01 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 01 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 01 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 01 $106 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 01 $26 −$17 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 01 $143 +$26 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 01 $46 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 56¢ $19 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 38¢ $31 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $33 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $118 4d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 34d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 50¢ $46 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $2 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $6 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $2 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $20 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $6 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $3 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.68 · official $58.68 · 185 history records