Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:13:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x213a…bef5
crypto · 121 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$124 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$122 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$82
Realized−$122
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses55 / 56
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)111 / 121
History coverage3d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day86.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 10 History 111 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$141
7 days−$122
14 days−$122
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 77¢ 79¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 53¢ 53¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 57¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 43¢ 43¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$25 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$6 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $101 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $42 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$6 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$5 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% −$128
other 3% −$4
world 3% +$7
sports 0% +$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $5 5h
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 57¢ $10 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -14.8% -22.9% 50% 38% -15.4%
≤30d 111 -14.8% -22.9% 50% 38% -15.4%
≤90d 111 -14.8% -22.9% 50% 38% -15.4%
all 111 -14.8% -22.9% 50% 38% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover86.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.9% 38% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 31% -23.5%
15% -37.0% 17% -30.9%
20% -43.2% 14% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.28 · official $82.28 (match) · 333 history records