Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x2139…a386 crypto 928 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,451 (-7%) realized −$3,451 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate72%665W / 263L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day39.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$272
14 days−$289
30 days−$1,402
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,232
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 229 +2.6% -7.2% 74% 34% -11.4%
≤30d 557 -4.5% -13.6% 68% 38% -13.6%
≤90d 928 -3.4% -12.6% 72% 34% -13.7%
all 928 -3.4% -12.6% 72% 34% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 34% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 23% -21.9%
15% -28.6% 18% -29.5%
20% -35.6% 14% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$44 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$3,451
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses665 / 263
Open positions0
Markets (closed)928 / 928
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day39.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 928 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $92 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $88 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $70 +$30 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $69 −$53 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$14 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $63 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $69 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $63 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $58 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $44 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$21 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $43 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $39 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $38 +$12 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $66 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$13 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$12 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $261 −$261 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $84 +$16 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $78 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $90 +$10 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $43 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $53 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $70 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $38 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $13 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $12 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $63 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $28 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $28 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.49 · official $58.49 (match) · 3500 history records