Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:46:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x2138…ebe5
other · 6 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$74 -54%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$31 · open −$95
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$6
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage51d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 2 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $100 $5 −$95 (-95%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +246%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 73% −$95
other 20% +$25
sports 7% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+70.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +87.9% +70.0% 75% 50% +105.1%
≤30d 4 +87.9% +70.0% 75% 50% +105.1%
≤90d 4 +87.9% +70.0% 75% 50% +105.1%
all 4 +87.9% +70.0% 75% 50% +105.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +70.0% 50% +105.1%
10% +53.7% 50% +85.4%
15% +38.8% 50% +67.5%
20% +25.2% 50% +51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.93 · official $5.93 (match) · 21 history records