Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
21 0x2133…7903 sports 696 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 140d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$230 (-0%) realized −$225 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%298W / 397L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$814est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 141d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$2,875
world 0% −$193
other 0% −$317
crypto 0% −$320
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -39.5% -45.2% 33% 33% -36.5%
≤30d 52 -17.4% -25.3% 37% 37% -30.9%
≤90d 311 +1.5% -8.2% 44% 43% -13.9%
all 695 -3.6% -12.8% 43% 41% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 41% -11.9%
10% -21.1% 39% -20.3%
15% -28.8% 35% -28.0%
20% -35.7% 30% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$189 vs −$156 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$225
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses298 / 397
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$814
Open positions1
Markets (closed)695 / 696
History coverage141d ⚠
Avg bet$202
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 695 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Overwatch: Twisted Minds vs Geekay Esports (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Stage Twisted Minds 82¢ 80¢ $166 $161 −$5 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 26 $86 −$86 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $104 −$104 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham Jun 26 $187 −$18 -10%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $104 +$21 +20%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $120 −$120 -100%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 23 $132 +$118 +89%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 23 $121 −$121 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $33 −$32 -97%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $176 −$176 -100%
Map Handicap: EP (-1.5) vs Barça eSports (+1.5) Jun 22 $122 +$128 +104%
Map Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs Pixel Lumina (+1.5) Jun 22 $16 −$16 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $285 +$122 +43%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $143 +$88 +62%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $304 −$304 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $109 −$107 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $86 −$84 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $95 −$95 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $51 +$212 +414%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $144 +$54 +38%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $100 +$56 +56%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $152 +$69 +45%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $146 −$144 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $123 +$96 +78%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $45 +$55 +122%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $80 $0 -1%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $143 +$70 +49%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$1 +43%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $145 −$143 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $27 −$27 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $178 −$175 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $277 +$46 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $177 +$101 +57%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gaming By Legends vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $76 −$75 -98%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $37 +$131 +354%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $72 −$72 -99%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $61 −$1 -2%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $97 −$96 -99%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $54 −$27 -50%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $92 +$200 +217%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 31 $45 +$10 +23%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs TLN Pirates (+1.5) May 29 $198 +$102 +52%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $180 −$180 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Overwatch: Twisted Minds vs Geekay Esports (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Gr BUY Twisted Minds 82¢ $83 1h
Overwatch: Twisted Minds vs Geekay Esports (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Gr BUY Twisted Minds 82¢ $83 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 34¢ $78 20h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 34¢ $26 20h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Playof BUY Millennium Esports 34¢ $86 27h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 83¢ $104 43h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham SELL Isurus 64¢ $102 47h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Isurus 63¢ $187 47h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 48¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 48¢ $24 3d
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 48¢ $92 3d
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 48¢ $103 3d
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 48¢ $2 3d
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 50¢ $12 3d
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 50¢ $3 3d
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 53¢ $132 3d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner SELL MODUS 48¢ $1 4d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 44¢ $33 4d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 60¢ $4 4d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 60¢ $173 4d
Map Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs Pixel Lumina (+1.5) BUY UCAM Esports Club 21¢ $16 4d
Map Handicap: EP (-1.5) vs Barça eSports (+1.5) BUY Enterprise Esports 49¢ $122 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $407 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 70¢ $285 5d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 61¢ $143 6d
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 45¢ $4 6d
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 58¢ $15 6d
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 58¢ $52 6d
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 58¢ $96 6d
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 58¢ $138 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.59 · official $160.59 (match) · 3500 history records